How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? It’s much harder to say where the economics profession goes from here. But what’s almost certain is that economists will have to learn to live with messiness. That is, they will have to acknowledge the importance of irrational and often unpredictable behavior, face up to the often idiosyncratic imperfections of markets and accept that an elegant economic “theory of everything” is a long way off. In practical terms, this will translate into more cautious policy advice — and a reduced willingness to dismantle economic safeguards in the faith that markets will solve all problems. II. FROM SMITH TO KEYNES AND BACKThe birth of economics as a discipline is usually credited to Adam Smith, who published “The Wealth of Nations” in 1. Over the next 1. 60 years an extensive body of economic theory was developed, whose central message was: Trust the market. Yes, economists admitted that there were cases in which markets might fail, of which the most important was the case of “externalities” — costs that people impose on others without paying the price, like traffic congestion or pollution. But the basic presumption of “neoclassical” economics (named after the late- 1. This faith was, however, shattered by the Great Depression. Actually, even in the face of total collapse some economists insisted that whatever happens in a market economy must be right: “Depressions are not simply evils,” declared Joseph Schumpeter in 1. They are, he added, “forms of something which has to be done.” But many, and eventually most, economists turned to the insights of John Maynard Keynes for both an explanation of what had happened and a solution to future depressions. Photo. Credit. Jason Lutes Keynes did not, despite what you may have heard, want the government to run the economy. He described his analysis in his 1. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,” as “moderately conservative in its implications.” He wanted to fix capitalism, not replace it. But he did challenge the notion that free- market economies can function without a minder, expressing particular contempt for financial markets, which he viewed as being dominated by short- term speculation with little regard for fundamentals. They turned a blind. Spider-Man: Homecoming’s willingness to to sidestep the history established in Sony’s two other takes on the webhead and get Peter Parker back to his awkward. And he called for active government intervention — printing more money and, if necessary, spending heavily on public works — to fight unemployment during slumps. It’s important to understand that Keynes did much more than make bold assertions. Yet the story of economics over the past half century is, to a large degree, the story of a retreat from Keynesianism and a return to neoclassicism. The neoclassical revival was initially led by Milton Friedman of the University of Chicago, who asserted as early as 1. But what about depressions? The Complete Works: Ranking All 374 Rolling Stones Songs An honest look at the world’s greatest rock-and-roll band. TIME Magazine and Pulitzer-Prize Winning automotive critic Dan Neil run down the 50 worst cars ever produced. Check out Rolling Stone's latest political news and features covering today's hottest political topics and Matt Taibbi's take. Friedman’s counterattack against Keynes began with the doctrine known as monetarism. Monetarists didn’t disagree in principle with the idea that a market economy needs deliberate stabilization. Monetarists asserted, however, that a very limited, circumscribed form of government intervention — namely, instructing central banks to keep the nation’s money supply, the sum of cash in circulation and bank deposits, growing on a steady path — is all that’s required to prevent depressions. Famously, Friedman and his collaborator, Anna Schwartz, argued that if the Federal Reserve had done its job properly, the Great Depression would not have happened. Later, Friedman made a compelling case against any deliberate effort by government to push unemployment below its “natural” level (currently thought to be about 4. United States): excessively expansionary policies, he predicted, would lead to a combination of inflation and high unemployment — a prediction that was borne out by the stagflation of the 1. Keynesian movement. Eventually, however, the anti- Keynesian counterrevolution went far beyond Friedman’s position, which came to seem relatively moderate compared with what his successors were saying. Among financial economists, Keynes’s disparaging vision of financial markets as a “casino” was replaced by “efficient market” theory, which asserted that financial markets always get asset prices right given the available information. Meanwhile, many macroeconomists completely rejected Keynes’s framework for understanding economic slumps. Some returned to the view of Schumpeter and other apologists for the Great Depression, viewing recessions as a good thing, part of the economy’s adjustment to change. And even those not willing to go that far argued that any attempt to fight an economic slump would do more harm than good. Not all macroeconomists were willing to go down this road: many became self- described New Keynesians, who continued to believe in an active role for the government. Yet even they mostly accepted the notion that investors and consumers are rational and that markets generally get it right. Of course, there were exceptions to these trends: a few economists challenged the assumption of rational behavior, questioned the belief that financial markets can be trusted and pointed to the long history of financial crises that had devastating economic consequences. But they were swimming against the tide, unable to make much headway against a pervasive and, in retrospect, foolish complacency. III. PANGLOSSIAN FINANCEIn the 1. Keynes compared them to “those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those that he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors.”And Keynes considered it a very bad idea to let such markets, in which speculators spent their time chasing one another’s tails, dictate important business decisions: “When the capital development of a country becomes a by- product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill- done.”By 1. Voltaire’s Dr. Pangloss, who insisted that we live in the best of all possible worlds. Discussion of investor irrationality, of bubbles, of destructive speculation had virtually disappeared from academic discourse. The field was dominated by the “efficient- market hypothesis,” promulgated by Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago, which claims that financial markets price assets precisely at their intrinsic worth given all publicly available information. In other words, finance economists believed that we should put the capital development of the nation in the hands of what Keynes had called a “casino.”Photo. Credit. Jason Lutes It’s hard to argue that this transformation in the profession was driven by events. True, the memory of 1. In 1. 97. 3- 4, for example, stocks lost 4. And the 1. 98. 7 stock crash, in which the Dow plunged nearly 2. These events, however, which Keynes would have considered evidence of the unreliability of markets, did little to blunt the force of a beautiful idea. The theoretical model that finance economists developed by assuming that every investor rationally balances risk against reward — the so- called Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM (pronounced cap- em) — is wonderfully elegant. And if you accept its premises it’s also extremely useful. CAPM not only tells you how to choose your portfolio — even more important from the financial industry’s point of view, it tells you how to put a price on financial derivatives, claims on claims. The elegance and apparent usefulness of the new theory led to a string of Nobel prizes for its creators, and many of the theory’s adepts also received more mundane rewards: Armed with their new models and formidable math skills — the more arcane uses of CAPM require physicist- level computations — mild- mannered business- school professors could and did become Wall Street rocket scientists, earning Wall Street paychecks. To be fair, finance theorists didn’t accept the efficient- market hypothesis merely because it was elegant, convenient and lucrative. They also produced a great deal of statistical evidence, which at first seemed strongly supportive. But this evidence was of an oddly limited form. Finance economists rarely asked the seemingly obvious (though not easily answered) question of whether asset prices made sense given real- world fundamentals like earnings. Instead, they asked only whether asset prices made sense given other asset prices. Larry Summers, now the top economic adviser in the Obama administration, once mocked finance professors with a parable about “ketchup economists” who “have shown that two- quart bottles of ketchup invariably sell for exactly twice as much as one- quart bottles of ketchup,” and conclude from this that the ketchup market is perfectly efficient. But neither this mockery nor more polite critiques from economists like Robert Shiller of Yale had much effect. Finance theorists continued to believe that their models were essentially right, and so did many people making real- world decisions. Not least among these was Alan Greenspan, who was then the Fed chairman and a long- time supporter of financial deregulation whose rejection of calls to rein in subprime lending or address the ever- inflating housing bubble rested in large part on the belief that modern financial economics had everything under control. There was a telling moment in 2. Greenspan’s tenure at the Fed. One brave attendee, Raghuram Rajan (of the University of Chicago, surprisingly), presented a paper warning that the financial system was taking on potentially dangerous levels of risk.
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The Episode starts with Vividha seeing the army men. The army man asks who are you, what are you doing here alone, don’t you know about curfew. She says I came to find Ravish. He asks are you his wife. She says I know you can help me, border is close, you can know where they took Ravish. He says we don’t know exact location, we are trying to find him. She shouts you can’t do anything, you should have freed me till now, Ravish did a lot, when he needs you all, you are saying about protocol, Ravish does not think to give up his life for any of you, and you all are thinking so much, if you don’t help me, I will find him. He says he is not here, terrorists took him across the border, they are attacking in this area, you can’t roam here, you have to come with us to camp area. He says there is shoot at sight orders, come with us. She thinks if I go with them to camp, they can send me to Delhi. She says I don’t know you, I will not come along. 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Vividha recalls Ravish. She wakes up from sleep. The man asks what happened Mam. She says nothing. She thinks I don’t let anything happen to Ravish, I will find you any way, don’t lose courage. Ravish is tortured by the terrorists. They scold Ravish and ask him to pay the price for killing their men. Ravish recalls shooting the terrorists. Ravish is asked to come back. Ravish asks a soldier to get thus chance and go back. Drama Serial Dil Diya Dehleez Episode 45 Of PokemonThe man refuses and goes ahead. The man gets shocked. Ravish shouts out his name. He gets caught by the terrorists. Vividha thinks to fool the army men and leave, else they will not let her go. She makes excuse of going bathroom. Sujata lights diya and prays that Vividha finds Ravish, get both of them back safe. Suman looks on and asks her to stop this drama. She says the one who is my life’s curse is praying for my life. Sujata says we all have to unite at this tough time. Suman argues with her. She says your son Atharv whom Ravish loved so much and risked his life for him, Ravish sacrificed his marriage and love and kept smiling, and when Ravish is in need of help, what did your son do, Atharv went from here, this puja has no meaning. She blows off the diya angrily. Everyone get shocked. Vividha walks towards the border. She says there is no security here, border has security, I did not know its so easy to cross border. Some militants come there and see her at the border line. Sujata asks what did you do Suman ji, why did you do this abshagun. She lights diya again. The men talk cheaply seeing her and then aim the missile on her. The man says she will not enter this area and not go back. The man shoots the missile. She gets shocked seeing the missile aired. The missile blasts. Atharv holds Vividha and takes her away. They both fall down. Sujata says I have lighted diya for both of them, and you have done this. Abdul uncle comes and says not for two children, pray for three children now. Sujata asks Atharv. Vividha sees Atharv. Precap: Atharv and Vividha argue. He asks to come with him. She refuses to come without Ravish. He asks her to go and die then. She says I live or die, its my decision. She falls in the river. Atharv turns and shouts Vividha. Update Credit to: Amena. Ishqbaaz 2. 5th January 2. Written Episode Update. Ishqbaaz 2. 5th January 2. Written Episode, Written Update on Telly. Updates. com. Shivaye asks Tia to check Sahil. Anika cries and asks if there were Omru in Sahil’s place, would you do this, you proved just family is important to you, you don’t see anything else. Some time before, Anika asks Shivaye to tell them that Sahil can never do this. Shivaye asks Sahil did you steal necklace. Sahil cries. Anika says Shivaye. Sahil says I did not steal. Tia says he will never accept, I want to check him. Anika says if he did not do anything, he will not be checked. Kapoor shows phone to Shivaye. He thinks of her threatening words. Anika says Shivaye, why are you not saying anything, you know Sahil is not thief. Pinky asks why is he afraid then. Jhanvi says Sahil is guest here, guest is not insulted. Pinky says he is a kid, he is poor, poverty makes person do anything, maybe Anika told him to do this. Anika cries and says we are poor, but we are not thieves. Shivaye sees Mrs. He asks Tia to check Sahil. Anika gets shocked. She says what are you saying. Shivaye says if Sahil did not steal, what’s the problem, Tia’s doubt will clear. She says its not about doubt, its about your trust. He says no, its about solution. Tia checks Sahil. Sahil says stop them, I did not do anything. Anika asks how can you let this happen, leave Sahil, Shivaye say something. Shwetlana looks on and smiles. Tia says necklace is not there. Anika hugs Sahil and asks is it done, did you get satisfied, like you trust Omkara, I trust Sahil, aunty ji I respect you a lot, but whatever happened today, should have not happened, where there is trust, there is no place for doubt, where there is doubt, trust can’t stay. Kapoor signs Shwetlana. Shwetlana drives her wheelchair ahead. Sahil falls down. Anika shouts Sahil and holds him. Everyone get shocked seeing the necklace falling from his crutch. Tia picks her necklace and says I said it, he did theft, like sister, like brother. He recalls keeping the necklace inside the crutch gripper. Pinky starts scolding Anika. She says its good we got the necklace, I think we should check their rooms. Sahil says no, I did not steal anything. Pinky asks him to say this to police. Sahil tells Anika that he did not do theft. Pinky asks Shivaye to call police. Anika says no, Shivaye you know Sahil can’t do this. Pinky says these crocodile tears can melt him, not me, I will call police, if he doesn’t. Anika asks Shivaye to stop Pinky. Kapoor signs no to Shivaye. Shivaye goes and stops Pinky. Kapoor signs no and shows phone. Pinky asks Shivaye not to get in this matter. Shivaye says do what you find right. Anika gets shocked. Tia says leave it Pinky mom, we got our thing, if we call police, it will defame this house, which I don’t wish, I will be okay if Sahil apologizes. Pinky says see this is my bahu, she is forgiving you after all this, she worries for this house respect, this is difference between good family people and thieves, apologize. Anika says Sahil won’t apologize, he did not do mistake. Pinky says he has to apologize, else police will come. Anika says I will apologize on his behalf, sorry Tia. Tia asks her to say it well, say . Anika cries and says I m sorry Tia, for all my mistakes, this will never happen again. Shivaye looks on. Anika and Sahil cry. Shwetlana, Tia and Mrs. Kapoor smile. Anika looks at Shivaye and asks Sahil to come. They go. Pinky tells servants to do work perfect, its Lohri in evening. She asks Shakti did I say right. He says when do you say wrong, Chaddas are coming in evening. Tej says I don’t want him to misbehave in front of Chaddas, explain him. Jhanvi asks why don’t you tell him. Tej says I know truth, there is no justification of what he did, just explain him not to do any drama. Pinky says I m scared that Anika can do any drama, its Shitia’s first Lohri. Shakti asks are you mad, Shivaye and Anika got married, its their first Lohri. She says I won’t accept Anika as bahu. He says fine, Maa will not accept Tia as bahu. She says it does not matter, Tia is his wife in front of everyone, so Shitia will celebrate Lohri. Shivaye comes to room. He sees Anika crying. He says Anika. She says when I feel I understand you, you do something that breaks my heart, my trust, sometimes you fight for me in front of the world, and sometimes you ruin my respect, if Omru were there in Sahil’s place, would you silently see all that, never. He says I don’t think its necessary to give any explanation. She says you proved for you, just your family, blood, family is everything, you don’t see anything except this. She cries and turns away. He gets away and cries holding the curtains. He goes out of the room. Kapoor says well done, I m happy, you took right decision by choosing own brother instead Anika’s brother. He says its too much, I did wrong with an innocent kid, don’t you test my patience, I m not scared of you, I m bearing you, when my tolerance ends, it won’t be good for you. She says if you don’t listen to me, I will tell the world that Omkara is Tej’s illegitimate son, it would be better for your family that you listen to me. Sahil hears them. Shivaye angrily throws his phone and breaks. Sahil comes in his way. Shivaye says I know you are annoyed with me, you kept some conditions t stay here, I could not fulfill that, you took my promise that I will take care of you. Sahil hugs him and says you did not break your promise, you are not bad, I m not angry with you, you are very nice. Shivaye sits and says no Sahil, I m not good, see what I did, I have hurt your heart, Anika’s heart. Sahil says but you did this being helpless, not purposely, I know everything. Shivaye asks what do you know. Sahil says what Tia’s mom said, I heard everything, you did not take my side, as you were thinking about Omkara, I understand and even Anika will understand if you explain him. Shivaye says listen, don’t tell this to anyone, even to Anika. Sahil says fine. Shivaye asks pinky promise. Sahil promises. They smile. Precap: Pinky tells Shivaye that Lohri function is starting, Tia is ready, you both have to do puja together. 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